Zimbabwe to the rescue in the Congo?

Posted by Jackson On 9:56 AM
Robert Mugabe attends the presidential inauguration of Joseph Kabila, December
20, 2011. Gwen Dubourthoumieu/ AFP. 
It is August 1998, the dawn of the Second Congo War. After a daring 1,000 mile-plus airlift, Rwandan and Ugandan troops stand at the western outskirts of Kinshasa, poised to topple the newly instated regime of Laurent Kabila. Zimbabwean and Angolan troops come to the rescue, beating back the invaders. Zimbabwean troops will play a key role for the remainder of the war, grinding down the more conventional Rwandan/ Ugandan/Congolese rebel advance from the east.

Once again rebels with (according to the UN [November 15 Group of Experts Report 
 and November 26 letter with supplementary info]) Rwandan and Ugandan backing are wreaking havoc in eastern DRC. They have threatened to march on Kinshasa, and judging by the performance of the Congolese army (FARDC), it seems only time and jungle stand in their way. Will Zimbabwe bail out Kabila Jr.? Not likely.

A November 23 article in the Zimbabwe Independent reports several ZANU-PF sources as nixing another Zimbabwean military intervention in the Congo.

Since Zimbabwe withdrew its troops from the Congo in 2002, Joseph Kabila has faced numerous challenges, and talk of Zimbabwean military involvement has continued to surface. Rumors have circulated that a detachment of Zimbabwean presidential guards protects Kabila, and some analysts interpreted comments made by Robert Mugabe during Congo’s post-election turmoil in 2011 as a willingness to intervene militarily on the side of Kabila should the need arise.

However in regards to this newest threat, it seems certain the government of Zimbabwe will not bail out Kabila as it did from 1998-2002. History provides the reasons.

Mugabe, who had grown increasingly insecure over magnitude of his regional clout, intervened in the Second Congo War primarily to prove himself as a still relevant force in southern African geopolitics. Patronage opportunities for members of his inner circle likely also played a roll. While these goals may have been achieved, the operation proved to be an albatross in almost every other way.
Zimbabwean troops disembark at N'Djili airport,
Kinshasa, 1998. BBC. 
ZANU-PF officials had intended the expedition to be self-sustaining, financed by a web of immense mining, timber, land and other economic concession granted to Zimbabwean parastatals and military run holding companies. While various organizations have criticized the deals as allowing for the large-scale exploitation of DRC’s natural wealth, the Zimbabwean Defense Forces proved incapable of such exploitation. The various projects required significant start-up costs and technical expertise that the ZDF did not posses, and shadowy partners brought to provide funds and know-how got the best of every deal (see Jason Stearns’ Dancing in the Glory of Monsters, and this International Crisis Group report). While individual ZANU-PF and ZDF commanders likely made some quick cash Zimbabwe’s foreign war grew the nations debt.

The financial burden of the intervention mixed with ZANU-PF’s disastrous economic policies lead to the collapse of the Zimbabwean economy in the early 2000s.

The war was deeply unpopular with the Zimbabwean public. It was a rallying point of the MDC during the 2000 legislative elections, through which the opposition party burst onto the political scene with a surprisingly strong performance.

The same circumstances mitigate against another Zimbabwean intervention today. Zimbabwe can little afford another military adventure, and the DRC is in no better position to pay for one either. In fact, Zimbabwe is still trying to claim US$1 billion from Kinshasa for expenses occurred during its last Congo campaign. With economic troubles and other problems at home, another intervention would likely prove just as unpopular. Additionally, elections loom in 2013.

The Zimbabwe Independent also cites the breakdown of relations between Kabila and Mugabe. Kabila has apparently not shown enough gratitude for Mugabe’s vital support – refusing to pay the war debt while distancing himself from Mugabe’s pariah regime and cozying up to South Africa.
However, a Zimbabwean government source noted the possibility of Zimbabwean intervention within SADC, AU and/or UN frameworks. Here, it seems that Zimbabwe would be covered politically and, most importantly, would not have to foot the bill. 

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